Igor Rudan: Caution is enough, but paranoia is really not necessary

first_imgBut the question is just how careful should that be? Although it is ungrateful for a serious scientist to predict anything about the spread of a completely new and unknown virus to the entire human population in the world, and to predict each individual event, over the past two months we have collected enough data on the new coronavirus COVID-19 for at least some predictions. If the new coronavirus spreads to Croatia over time and bypasses the numerous prevention measures currently in place, its death toll should be at least roughly comparable to the death toll from the flu or road accidents in the same period. This means that some healthy caution is recommended. This caution is reasonable as long as it is on the same level as the mild fear you may feel when you sit in the car and prepare for a slightly longer trip, or when you hear on the news that the flu has arrived in Croatia. Director of the Center for Global Health, University of EdinburghDirector of the Collaborating Center of the World Health Organization, University of EdinburghEditor-in-Chief of the International Scientific Journal “Journal of Global Health” Whenever I return to Croatia for short or long visits, my friends can jokingly warn me: “Igor, here in Croatia, caution is not enough. Paranoia is needed! ” If this is true, I am afraid that some people have started to apply this way of thinking to the new situation with coronavirus. I would like to say that caution is quite enough in this case, but paranoia is really not necessary. PRESS RELEASE TO MEDIA REPRESENTATIVES IN THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA Dear Sirs, The coronavirus was confirmed in Croatia only two days ago, but we have already been bombarded about this virus through the media long before that. Every day, a few suspicious cases emerged that were only suspicious in the end, we read how many deaths have been reported in Asia and how fast the coronavirus is spreading. Everything that was far away until two days ago, came to our yard. Often people these days, however, ask me why so much is written and cared about the coronavirus at all, and not about the flu, if the flu is perhaps a more dangerous disease? The reason is partly that the flu has been a well-known disease for decades, it returns every year and we have experience with its manifestations on tens of millions of patients worldwide, we know how to develop vaccines against it in advance, and we started getting the first somewhat effective drugs on the market. . I hope you can understand that as director of a large global health research center and head of the World Health Organization’s collaborating center at the University of Edinburgh in the UK, I have a tremendous amount of work these days and it is completely impossible for me to respond to your individual requests. Therefore, I will try to fulfill at least to some extent my social task as a scientist who has been working in this field for a long time and intensively, and share some thoughts with everyone who began to feel concerned about this new pandemic in the 21st century. I thank everyone for their interest and feel free to share my further announcements about the pandemic. Photo: Facebook Igor Rudan If you feel a greater fear of the new coronavirus than when you get behind the wheel or hear that the flu is coming, which is already well known to you, it means that this fear is no longer reasonable and that you have begun to succumb to an atmosphere of panic. This panic is caused in you by constant media articles and the way they stand out, and not by the generally accepted and scientifically based knowledge about the coronavirus. If you have started and behaved differently than you do during the winter months, during a flu epidemic, for example, collecting food supplies or wearing masks on the street, this is again not behavior that is in line with the actual scale of the danger. I hope that these thoughts will calm my readers down at least a little, and I will offer more detailed information, if everything stays according to the current plan, in the show “Nedjeljom u 2”, an interview in Index.hr, new columns in my home Večernji list ”, and continuously here on Facebook, through the series“ Quarantine Wuhan ”, which will slowly follow the development of this pandemic and its most interesting story. I would also like to point out to the media our top scientist Petra Klepac, who works at the famous London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and deals with modeling infectious diseases, such as possible epidemics and pandemics of coronavirus. If you know of more of our experts in the world who work in this field, be sure to point them out in the comments below this release. Also, help by sharing that this expert view of the coronavirus becomes “viral” before the coronavirus itself in Croatia becomes “viral”, so there will be less unnecessary fear. I thank everyone for the truly incredible amount of interest and invitations that caught me today from literally all media in the Republic of Croatia to try to calm the atmosphere in Croatia as an internationally recognized expert in the field of global health due to the first patients with the new type of coronavirus COVID-19 . Also, I agreed to be a guest of Mr. Aleksandar Stanković this Sunday, March 01.03.2020, 2. in the show “Sunday at 08.03.2020”. Also, I agreed to give an interview to Nenad Jarić Dauenhauer for Index.hr, which should be published a week later, ie around March XNUMX, XNUMX. In addition, I will write for my home newspaper “Večernji list”, of which I am a columnist. All other media have the right to broadcast the sequels of the series I started on Facebook called “Quarantine Wuhan”, in which during this pandemic I will systematically explain everything that seems important to me for in-depth understanding and good information about everything that is happening. I really won’t be able to offer more than that, so I sincerely apologize to everyone in advance. Unlike the flu, the new coronavirus is unknown to us and we are most careful not to be surprised. If that virus has any interest at the moment, it is to adapt to the human species as its new reservoir in which it will continue to multiply, not to kill us. The virus now, by spreading through the human species, continues to mutate in order to adapt to us as quickly and better as possible. Many of these mutations will make it less dangerous to our health because it will adapt to us better that way. However, some random mutations could make it even more dangerous, and so we need to be vigilant until we get to know it better and until the pandemic is over. It is unlikely that the new coronavirus virus will mutate in such a way that it could become significantly more dangerous in many infected than it is now, but we will only be able to claim this definitively when the pandemic is over. Prof. dr. sc. Igor Rudan, FRSE The main news came from the world’s newspaper headlines to the domestic media, and some of them could hardly wait for it. Already on the first day we saw empty shelves in some Zagreb stores, face masks were created from pharmacy shelves and started to be sold on websites at ridiculously high prices, and the tag coronavirus became inevitable in most articles. Beneath so much media noise, the quiet voice of the scientific community was heard, repeating that the coronavirus should not be ignored, but should not even panic around it. One of the scientists who is an expert in the field of global health is prof. dr. sc. Igor Rudan, and he addressed the public with a statement, which we transmit in full:last_img

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *